National Grid Defends Separate Gas and Electric Forecasts
National Grid's general counsel argues that differing gas and electric load forecasts are a necessary part of responsible utility planning, not evidence of
Philip DeCicco, general counsel for National Grid New York, states that a recent opinion piece fundamentally misunderstands utility forecasting. The piece incorrectly claims that National Grid uses conflicting gas and electric forecasts to justify costly infrastructure, thereby raising customer bills.
DeCicco says the criticism centers on a perceived gap in heat pump adoption projections between the company's electric and gas plans. He contends this comparison is invalid because the forecasts are designed for different purposes and serve different customer populations.
Different Customer Bases, Not Different Assumptions
The opinion piece highlighted a difference of roughly 30,000 units in projected heat pump adoption between National Grid subsidiary Niagara Mohawk Power Corp.'s (NMPC) electric and gas planning. DeCicco explains this is not an inconsistency. NMPC's electric business serves 1.7 million customers, while its gas business serves about 600,000.
A direct comparison is flawed. The gas forecast only counts customers converting from natural gas to electric heating, as those are the only ones relevant to gas-system planning. The electric forecast captures all heat pump additions, regardless of the fuel being displaced. Approximately 60% of heat-pump conversions in NMPC's territory involve customers switching from delivered fuels like oil or propane, not from natural gas. These affect electric demand but do not represent customers leaving the gas system.
Forecasting as Risk Management
Utility planning is about managing risk and ensuring reliability, not predicting the future with certainty. Electric utilities must have infrastructure ready when needed. Given New York's energy strategy, if heat pump adoption accelerates, utilities cannot build substations and transmission lines overnight. Major investments need years of work.
Electric planners must therefore consider scenarios where electrification exceeds expectations. Underestimating demand would shrink reliability margins and cause costly project delays. The principle applies in reverse for gas planning. Gas utilities must demonstrate they can reliably serve all firm customers on the coldest expected day. As long as customers remain connected, the utility must plan to serve them.
The opinion piece assumes customers who install heat pumps immediately stop using natural gas. DeCicco says reality shows otherwise. Only about 5% of NMPC customers who install heat pumps fully disconnect from the gas system. Most retain their connection for other uses like water heating and cooking. Some maintain dual-fuel systems, using gas during the coldest periods. The article's analysis implies roughly half of adopting customers would leave the gas system, an assumption DeCicco calls ten times higher than observed behavior.
Accounting for Regional Differences
The article also overlooks regional variations across New York's energy transition. National Grid serves diverse territories from Buffalo to Brooklyn, with different climates, housing stocks, and customer preferences. Heat pump adoption rates, economics, and building characteristics vary significantly. Sound utility planning must account for these regional differences rather than applying uniform assumptions. A one-size-fits-all approach would undermine forecast accuracy and reliability.
Forecasts Have Undergone Regulatory Review
DeCicco notes that National Grid's forecasting methodologies have been extensively reviewed, countering any impression they escaped scrutiny. A New York Public Service Commission management audit specifically identified strong performance in both electric and gas load forecasting. The audit highlighted enhancements, governance improvements, and quality controls. These forecasts were developed and approved through strong regulatory proceedings and independent evaluation.
Affordability concerns make these distinctions critical, according to DeCicco. Integrated gas and electric planning is important, and National Grid is advancing that work. But productive policy discussions require an accurate understanding of what each forecast measures. The real challenge is handling an uncertain energy transition while maintaining safe, reliable, and affordable service. This requires rigorous analysis and a clear-eyed view of customer behavior, not conclusions from misleading comparisons.
