U.S. Gas Plant Plans Surge to 379 GW, Driven
A new report finds nearly 380 gigawatts of new natural gas power capacity is in development across the United States, largely fueled by data center growth
Developers have announced plans for nearly 380 gigawatts of new natural gas-fired power capacity in the United States, according to a report from Global Energy Monitor cited by Canary Media. This surge is largely driven by anticipated electricity demand from data centers supporting artificial intelligence services.
Not all of this massive proposed capacity will be built. The majority of these projects have not started construction, and many lack necessary permits or committed customers. Most data-center-specific projects have yet to confirm they have secured gas turbines. Historically, about 75% of capacity seeking grid interconnection has dropped out of the process, according to Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.
Speculative Boom and Construction Reality
The reported figures are inflated by enthusiasm for AI. What ultimately gets built will depend heavily on the strength and durability of demand for AI services. Many of the largest proposed projects are tied to data center plans that are far from certain. Report author Jenny Martos told Axios that it is now "nearly impossible" to distinguish between unrealistic proposals and those with a real chance of proceeding.
Despite the uncertainty, 52 gigawatts of gas capacity is already under construction in the U.S. This is more than any other country is building, which aligns with the nation's status as the world's largest natural gas producer. The total pipeline of announced and developing projects has grown by 50% in just six months, indicating surging interest from developers.
Equipment Shortages Drive Dirtier Choices
Competition for power plant equipment has intensified amid the development frenzy. Companies unwilling to wait for the most efficient combined-cycle gas turbines are turning to dirtier alternatives. Approximately one-quarter of projects linked to data centers are opting for combustion engines instead of the cleaner turbine technology.
The scale of proposed development presents a significant threat to U.S. decarbonization efforts. Natural gas is already the nation's largest source of electricity and a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, with roughly 500 gigawatts of capacity currently online. The final buildout will hinge on the uncertain trajectory of AI demand and the ability of projects to clear regulatory and logistical hurdles.
