Gas Car Residuals Face Collapse as Used EV
An analysis predicts ordinary gasoline cars in the US could become worth less than their ongoing fuel and maintenance costs within five years, as cheap
A five-year forecast suggests ordinary gasoline and diesel cars in the United States could become liabilities by 2031. According to a CleanTechnica analysis, their value as transportation may fall below zero when compared to the cost of keeping them running once inexpensive used electric vehicles are widely available.
The author bases this prediction on leading indicators from other markets and a fundamental shift in total cost of ownership. Norway has effectively completed its transition for new car sales, while China is now demonstrating the impact on the massive used car market.
Norway's New-Car Transition is Complete
Norway provides a clear preview for new vehicle sales. Battery-electric vehicles captured 95.9% of new passenger car sales in 2025. By July 2026, that figure had reached 97.6%. CleanTechnica's Maximilian Holland stated plainly that Norway has effectively reached the end of its new-car transition.
However, the existing fleet changes more slowly. By mid-2026, battery-electric vehicles constituted only about 34.6% of Norway's passenger fleet. More than 60% of cars on the road still used combustion engines. The support infrastructure is also evolving in a way that undermines residual values for gasoline cars. For instance, a Circle K station near Oslo reduced its fuel pumps from eight to six in July 2026 while adding chargers.
China's Used Market Shows the Strain
China, the world's largest car market, is now the test case for used internal combustion engine vehicles. From January to April 2026, used new energy vehicle trades in China hit 547,900, a 29% year-over-year increase, with resale values up about 30%. Meanwhile, dealers reportedly called used gasoline cars "unsellable," with one describing nearly a 10% value drop per month and taking a 30,000 RMB loss (about $4,400).
A key metric is the three-year residual value for gasoline cars in China, which has been tracked down to about 46%. A significant signal is the gap between new energy vehicles' share of new sales (around 63%) and their share of the used market (only 8.57%). As more three- and five-year-old electric vehicles enter the used market, moving leftover combustion engine vehicles will become harder.
The Total Cost of Ownership Math
The core argument rests on a straightforward comparison of annual operating costs for a typical American driver. The analysis uses figures of 12,000 miles driven, $4 per gallon gasoline, and 20 cents per kilowatt-hour electricity.
| Vehicle Type | MPG / Efficiency | Annual Fuel Cost | Estimated Annual Maintenance | Total Annual Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 mpg Gasoline Car | 25 mpg | $1,920 | ~$1,200 | ~$3,120 |
| 18 mpg Truck | 18 mpg | $2,667 | ~$1,200 | ~$3,867 |
| Home-Charged EV | 4 mi/kWh | $600 | ~$600 | ~$1,200 |
| Efficient Hybrid | 50 mpg | ~$800 | ~$1,200 | ~$2,000 |
For a five-plus-year-old US internal combustion engine vehicle, the author estimates about $200 per month in fuel and $100 per month in repairs and maintenance. A comparable electric vehicle, charged at home, would cost about $50 per month for electricity and $50 for maintenance. University of Michigan research already finds used battery-electric vehicles have the lowest total cost of ownership in the US.
The bet is that used electric vehicle prices will keep falling as more off-lease models arrive. This will make the running costs of a used gasoline car senseless next to them. The author outlines two options for a consumer around 2031: keep a paid-off gas car and pay roughly $300 monthly for fuel and maintenance, or sell it and buy a cheap used EV with a loan, resulting in a similar $300 monthly outlay for the payment, electricity, and maintenance.
Export Markets Delay, But Do Not Cancel, The Trend
Unwanted gasoline cars from markets like China are being exported to Southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East. This export valve can postpone a residual-value collapse. It cannot cancel it if those markets eventually perform the same total cost of ownership calculations or if inexpensive used electric vehicles become available there too. The analysis notes that other markets may reach this conclusion before the US because they have access to inexpensive electric cars from China.
The author acknowledges potential reasons the US timeline could be longer. The federal EV tax credit has expired, and hybrid sales are strong. The US is a truck country, and a used Nissan LEAF priced between $15,000 and $20,000 does not replace a work or tow vehicle. If no cheap used electric trucks emerge, residuals for internal combustion engine trucks could remain stable even as sedans struggle. The average age of the US vehicle fleet was 12.8 years in 2025, indicating a slow turnover. The final concrete detail is the scenario posed for automakers: what will companies like GM, Ford, and Stellantis do if a five-year-old gasoline crossover that sold for $50,000 becomes a $5,000 problem because no one wants the fuel bill?
